The exercise is simple. I pick games against the spread and rank them with confidence points. The spread I'm using is what is available on Yahoo as of Thursday when I make my picks. I could not be more down the middle on these so far, so if you are going to use my selections for any reasons, make sure to pick the right half!
Last Week: 8-8 The Week Before That: 8-8 And The Week Before That: 8-8 Season: 24-24
15 points - Carolina (-3.0) over Atlanta
Once again, I thought that the Vikings were going to get rolled and once again I was wrong. This time it was the Vikings doing the rolling against Carolina in Carolina. But I like the Panthers to bounce back here and to avoid going 1-3. More so because I don't like Atlanta here though. Atlanta just put up nearly a literal ton of yards against New Orleans, and I think they come in to this game, at home, with a false sense of confidence. I like Carolina to win here. Maybe not by a lot, but enough to cover the three.
14 points - Arizona (-7.5) over Los Angeles
Another team I keep underestimating in a costly fashion is the Rams. I've picked against them every week and it's usually my second most confident pick of the week. So I'm going to do it again here, despite their 2-1 record, and we'll find out if I'm falling in to the definition of insanity or if the theory of being due can supercede that.
13 points - Pittsburgh (-5.5) over Kansas City
This is another game where I'm picking based on one team and not the other. Kansas City has six picks last week, that's nice. But my focus is on the Steelers. I expect them to rebound nicely after their trashing to the Eagles in Philly a week ago. I like the Steelers at home in this one.
12 points - New England (-4.5) over Buffalo
You might be able to grab this one at even depending on New England's quarterback situation. Is Jimmy G (don't feel like taking the time to spell his last name right) going to be healthy enough to get the start? Will Julian Edeleman get an extended look at quarterback as per the wishes of the nation? It doesn't matter to me. Buffalo had a nice win last weekend, but New England has the chance to go 4-0 without Tom Brady. Don't tell me that's not going to motivate this team to give a big middle finger to Roger Goodell.
11 points - Oakland (+3.5) over Baltimore
My first underdog of the week, and it's going to be the Raiders. I'm going to ride Oakland on the road until they lose. I just think this is going to be a season where they keep winning on the road and go .500 at home.
10 points - Cleveland (+7.5) over Washington
This line is just too much for me. Especially with an NFC East team involved. Everytime there is an obvious play in the NFC East, it comes back to bite you (this is a theory I will contradict in a couple minutes, however). Give me the Browns, if for no other reason than I'm banking on Terrelle Pryor big time in fantasy leagues this weekend.
9 points - New York Giants (+4.5) over Minnesota
Betting with my heart, not my head. Nothing more.
8 points - Houston (-5.5) over Tennessee
I like the Texans to rebound at home against a Tennessee team that seems to be unable to score more than 17 points. Which means if the question is, can the Texans score 23 points at home, my answer is yes.
7 points - Dallas (-3.0) over San Francisco
I think I just talked myself out of this one in the time it took me to write the Washington pick until now, but I'm going to stick with Prescott and Zeke. I really love the poise of this Prescott kid. I don't see how Romo starts when he's healthy again and I think he knows it.
6 points - Jacksonville (+2.5) over Indianpolis
Jacksonville is technically the home team here with the game in London. I do like Jacksonville to finally get a win no matter where the game is though. Indy's offensive line may have to start up to four rookies and I like the Jags to exploit that. I'm not all in on these London games, but I'm all in on the 8:30am start time. Love it.
5 points - New Orleans (+3.5) over San Diego
Drew Brees' first time back in San Diego as a player since he left the Chargers organization. If you're betting this game, the over is the play here.
4 points - Cincinnati (-7.0) over Miami
Hey, I finally got a Thursday Night game right!
3 points - Denver (-3.0) over Tampa Bay
I'm done betting against Denver, that's the only reason I need.
2 points - Seattle (-1.5) over New York Jets
I'll take the Seahawks here. I don't think this will be a blowout, the Seahawks might open things up late but I expect a good, competitive game here. Russell Wilson should play and I think he'll be able to do just enough to get past the Jets.
1 point - Chicago (+3.0) over Detroit
NFC North games are the worst when the Packers aren't involved. They really are. Who is going to be watching this on Sunday? Why would you? Booooooorrrrriiiing.
Bonus college pick - WELL, THE BADGERS WHOOPED MICHIGAN BAAADD (except not that and the other way around!)