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Bart's Blog

 


Bart's Bets: Week 5

My name is Bart. I pick games against the spread each week. Then I rank them by confidence points. I use Yahoo's spread from Thursday. Let's go!

Last Week: 9-6     Year to Date: 33-30


14 points - Minnesota (-6.0) over Houston

Okay, I'm done going against Minnesota in these pick 'em things, and not only that, I'll give them the most confidence of the week. Look, I know the Vikings defense is good, I've been saying that all year. I just don't want to come around and admit that they are GREAT or ELITE. Comparatively with the rest of the league you could say that, sure, but I still think they will be exposed as the season goes on. Maybe that's just wishful thinking, I don't know. What I do know is that I 100 percent hope this pick helps contribute to whatever jinx vibes are out there in the ethos, and that the defense looks terrible in the process.

13 points - Miami (-3.5) over Tennessee

The game will go on as scheduled as Miami did not get hit by Hurricane Matthew as bad as it could have been. That's about all the analysis I'm willing to give or provide on this game. Tennessee isn't as bad as they have been playing, I don't think, but I give Miami the edge purely to ride with the home team here. 

12 points - Chicago (+4.5) over Indianapolis

These are without question the two teams that I am the lowest on in the whole league. The Bears are a mess and have somehow regressed from a season ago. The Colts have a problem where they are paying their QB a ton of money and then have none left over for their defense. At least that's what the Colts GM is saying. Publicly! Andrew Luck maybe isn't as good as we thought, but we'll really never know with that Colts defense and that poor Colts offensive line around him. I'm starting to think Luck might not be a Colt much longer. This is doesn't seem like it's going to end well.

11 points - Baltimore (-4.0) over Washington

I'm not sure how good Baltimore is, and Washington has put together a couple of nice wins, but gut goes with the home team here again.

10 points - Pittsburgh (-7.0) over New York Jets

The spread actually seems a bit high for me, but the oddsmakers must love Pittsburgh's defense against Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has started to regress to the mean as he always does. I'll keep riding the Steelers while they are hot, though.

9 points - Denver (-5.5) over Atlanta

Not going against Denver. That I've stated. I'm now more intrigued in the bet I made with Chuck on Friday. We set Matt Ryan's game yardage at 203 1/2. It may seem low, but off the top of my head I don't think the Broncos have allowed more than 205 yards to a QB this season, and they've faced some good ones. I'd look all this up for you, but then I have to open a new tab, and toggle between tabs, and write stuff, and you know, it's a hassle.

8 points - Dallas (even) over Cincinnati

Some lines have pushed the Bengals to the role of the favorite but I'll stay with Dallas regardless. I really like the Prescott / Elliot combo and I think Dallas would be crazy to throw Tony Romo back in there once he's healthy. They say injuries shouldn't cost you your starting job, but isn't that how people losing starting jobs like 98 percent of the time? All I know is that I'm pumped for the "Should Tony Romo backup Aaron Rodgers" topic next summer!

7 points - Arizona (-4) over San Francisco

Hey, I got a Thursday night game right! And I put more than one point on it!

6 points - Oakland (-3.5) over San Diego

My mantra with Oakland is that they are going to go like 7-1 or 8-0 on the road, and 4-4 at home. Well, this weekend they are at home. Give me the Raiders in this one, as the Chargers are not that good of a football team, definitely not better than the Raiders.

5 points - New England (-10) over Cleveland

The Browns played the Patriots three years ago and put up 26 on them, losing 27-26. Is that relevant here? Probably not. In fact, definitely not. But the point is just because it's the Patriots and just because it's the Browns doesn't mean it's going to be a blowout. Although in this case, it probably will be.

4 points - Buffalo (+2.5) over Los Angeles

Both of these teams are weird, and will continue to be weird. And both of these teams are probably going to miss the playoffs by one game in the last game of the season. Or this could be a Super Bowl preview! Who the hell knows in the NFL anymore.

3 points - Green Bay (-3) over New York Giants

On the show I took the Giants to cover, but what the hell. I like the Packers and I feel like taking them to win. So there!

2 points - Carolina (even) over Tampa Bay

Probably should have made this a double digit game in terms of my confidence points, but I'll back off with Cam Newton still going through the concussion protocol, and also the threats of the hurricane along the East Coast. Plus the Panthers have been burning me hard lately, so forget them. (note: I initially wrote f*** instead of forget just to see what it would look like on The FAN's website. I'm not sure what the rules are for swearing here. I am deciding against it.... for now.

1 point - Detroit (+3) over Philadelphia

There's gotta be a Carson Wentz let down game right? And why wouldn't it come against one of the league's worst defenses! 

Talk to you guys after a Packers WIN on Monday morning and then all week long - Weekdays 6a-10a on The FAN. 

- @winksthinks


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10/07/2016 6:24PM
Bart's Bets: Week 5
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