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Bart's Bets: Week 4

Pack back on track?

Bart Winkler
September 29, 2018 - 11:53 am
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Week 1: 10-5-1 
Week 2: 7-9 
Week 3: 7-9 

Total: 24-23-1

 

LOS ANGELES (-7) over Minnesota

Got the Thursday night pick to push, which means I'm 3-0-1 on the season on Thursday nights and really, that's the only bet of mine to follow at this point as the last two weeks have seen me become Jeff Fisher (7-9 in weeks 2 & 3). It seems like the more information I have available to me the worse I do! I liked the Rams here because of the short road week, but a missed field goal late cost me the win. Still, good to see the Vikings lose and their defense continue to crumble. Let's try to do better this week and at least get back to over .500.

 

NEW ENGLAND (-6.5) over Miami

Here's a stat I found on the Patriots from twitter user @ryan_spags. In 291 career regular season games in his Patriots coaching career, Bill Belichick is 215-76. And 22 of those losses came in the month of September, which he says proves his point of September being treated as an extended pre season/camp for Bill in terms of what he’s working with. I also feel like I saw a stat they New England responds pretty well to losses like the one they had last week in Detroit. So I'll ride with the Patriots here, especially being at home.

 

Houston (pick) over INDIANAPOLIS

The line has gone the way of the Texans and I'll go with it merely for the fact that I just can't see the Texans starting 0-4. Now, come along with me as I take the favorite for the next nine games.

 

ATLANTA (-3.5) over Cincinnati

Looking for Atlanta to rebound over a tough overtime loss against the Saints last week. Rank this one lower on my confidence pool but I'm usually scared off by Cincinnati on the road in a dome. No stats to back that up, but I'm betting with my gut and not my brain!

 

GREEN BAY (-9.5) over Buffalo

Buffalo's win over the Vikings was surprising and no one knows what to expect out of them this week, but the prediction I've been giving all week has been 32-20 and that would mean the Packers cover the spread. Hoping that this one is a blowout and I can focus all of my attention on the Brewers come 2pm. 

 

DALLAS (-3) over Detroit

Is Dallas good? Probably not. But is Detroit? No. I think that Dallas is less not good than Detroit is and the Cowboys are at home so there you go.

 

JACKSONVILLE (-7.5) over New York Jets

I'm just realizing that I didn't see a single second of the Jacksonville/Tennessee game from a week ago where the Jags lost 9-6. Oof. But they are still a top 5 team in the league for me and it's clear that the Jets have fallen back to earth quickly. I'll take Jacksonville in an easy one for them at home.

 

CHICAGO (-3) over Tampa Bay

Probably the game I'm the least confident in since you never know how much you can trust the Bears. But I do think Fitzmagic is running out and Chicago stays atop the NFC North for another week.

 

Philadelphia (-3) over TENNESSEE

I've been trying to come up with someone to write for this one for five minutes and I refuse to get writer's block over Eagles/Titans so let's just move on.


Seattle (-3) over ARIZONA

As bad as Arizona has been, something is compelling me to take them here but then I think of how bad Rosen looked when he was inexplicably thrown into the game against Chicago last weekend. Wilson vs Rosen? In 2018, I take Wilson.

 

OAKLAND (-3) over Cleveland

The Baker Mayfield era rides over it's first speed bump as the second Jon Gruden era finally gets the win they've been close to getting for the last couple of weeks.

 

LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (-10) over San Francisco

Seems awfully high for the Chargers until you remember that Jimmy G is out for the season. I'll go with the explosive Rivers led offense over the mysterious Beathard led one. And I just realized that his name is literally "Beat Hard". That will lead to many puns this season I'm sure.

 

NEW YORK GIANTS (+3.5) over New Orleans

Probably should take the Saints here but for the last 15 years the Giants have been the weirdest team in the league. They win when they should lose, they lose when they should win. I'll take them to at least cover at home.

 

PITTSBURGH (-3) over Baltimore

Can you believe it! We're finally getting Ravens/Steelers on a nationally televised broadcast! What a treat for all!

 

DENVER (+4.5) over Kansas City

I like Denver in September at home, that's why I made this bet with Chuck for $50. Then I realized that Monday will actually be October 1st. Come on Denver.

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